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White paper series | October 2026
Where the Federal Dollar Goes
U.S. federal spending in FY2025: composition, trends, and the outlook.
The federal government spent $7.01 trillion in fiscal year 2025 and collected $5.23 trillion, leaving a $1.78 trillion deficit. Social Security and Medicare alone exceeded one third of all spending, and net interest reached roughly $970 billion. This paper maps where the money goes, the pressure points ahead, three paths to fiscal balance and what each path could mean for investors.
By Rick Hadrava, Partner and Senior Wealth Advisor.
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30 pages, PDF. Data current as of October 14, 2026.
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The federal budget at a glance, FY2025
$7.01T
Spent, 23.1% of GDP
$5.23T
Collected, 17.2% of GDP
$1.78T
Borrowed, 5.8% of GDP
$970B
Net interest, more than all defense spending ($893B)
Sources: CBO, The Federal Budget in Fiscal Year 2025 (March 2026); U.S. Treasury, Final Monthly Treasury Statement, FY2025.
Inside the series
The FY2025 spending map
Where each federal dollar went, mandatory versus discretionary spending, and the trends from Social Security and health programs to defense and net interest.
The trend line and the paths to fiscal balance
Twelve years of receipts against spending, the pressure points and deadlines ahead, and three illustrative paths to fiscal balance.
What the fiscal paths mean for investors
What each path could mean for bonds, equities and real assets, the signposts worth watching, and an investor playbook.
The three fiscal paths are illustrative scenarios, not predictions. Projections and forward-looking statements rest on assumptions that may not prove accurate. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Talk through what it means for your plan
Schedule a free 20 minute introductory call with Rick Hadrava to talk through what these fiscal paths could mean for your own plan.